Body
I've spent the last four months doing something incredibly boring: building a spreadsheet from hell.
[Ad Spend Analysis 2.3M Dataset](https://i.redd.it/2h11y6ln3ovf1.gif)
See, I run a small agency (I work with businesses selling digital products on Whop & ecommerce brands), and I got tired of everyone (including me) making decisions based on vibes and that one podcast we half-listened to while doing laundry.
So I went full data nerd.
Pulled ad performance from 47 Shopify stores we've worked with over the past 18 months. $2.3M in total ad spend. Way too many late nights with Excel.
***My girlfriend asked if I was having an affair.***
***The goal was simple:*** Figure out what actually works versus what we just think works because some guru said so in a Twitter thread.
Here's what the numbers actually told me, and honestly, some of this stuff surprised the hell out of me.
**Meta vs Google: The divorce nobody saw coming**
Everyone's been screaming that Meta is dead since iOS 14. ***The data says... it's complicated.***
For stores under $50k/month in revenue, ***Meta still absolutely destroys Google.***
We're talking 3.2x ROAS on Meta versus 1.8x on Google. But here's where it gets weird: Once stores cross $100k/month, those numbers flip. Google starts pulling 2.7x while Meta drops to 2.1x.
***what's my theory?***
Meta is incredible for finding new customers when your brand is small and scrappy. But as you scale, you run out of cold audience, and Meta's algorithm starts showing your ads to your neighbor's dog.
Google, meanwhile, captures demand that already exists. When you're bigger, more people are searching for solutions you provide.
The real kicker: Stores that run both platforms see a 37% higher overall ROAS than stores that go all-in on one. Turns out your channels play nicer together than your divorced parents at Thanksgiving.
**iOS 14: The apocalypse that wasn't (but also kind of was)**
Remember when iOS 14 dropped and every marketer acted like the sky was falling? I was right there with them, panic-eating string cheese at midnight.
The data shows Meta's tracking accuracy dropped by about 31% for iOS users. That part sucked. But - and this is the weird part - actual conversion rates only dropped 8%.
Turns out, people were still buying stuff. We just couldn't see it properly in the dashboard.
What actually happened: Stores that freaked out and slashed their Meta budgets by 50%+ saw their revenue tank by an average of 42%.
Stores that kept spending (but improved their creative and diversified campaigns) only saw a 12% dip, and most recovered within 4-6 months.
The lesson? iOS 14 was more of a "your speedometer broke" problem than an "your engine died" problem. The car still runs. You just can't tell exactly how fast you're going anymore, which is terrifying but not fatal.
**Creative fatigue: It happens way faster than you think**
This one made me want to throw my laptop out a window.
The average ad creative starts dying after just 4.7 days.
Not weeks. Days. By day 7, your CPA has usually increased by 40%.
By day 14, you're basically lighting money on fire while your ad stares at the same 200 people who've already seen it 47 times.
The stores that figured this out early? They refresh creative every 5-6 days. Not completely new ads - just new hooks, new thumbnails, different opening lines. Basically a new outfit for the same person.
These stores maintained an average 2.9x ROAS over 6+ months. The stores still running the same ads from Q2 2024? They're at 1.4x and wondering why performance marketing is "broken."
Here's the part that'll make you mad: User-generated content (actual customers filming themselves) lasts 3x longer before fatigue sets in.
So all those polished studio ads you spent $5k producing? They die faster than the iPhone video your customer posted for free.
**The stuff nobody talks about**
A few random findings that didn't fit anywhere else but blew my mind:
Stores that run ads on weekends see 23% lower CPA, but nobody does it because marketers want weekends off (guilty). Thursday 8pm-11pm is weirdly the best time for conversions, which makes no sense until you realize people are shopping from their couch after putting kids to bed.
Product page load speed matters more than ad creative. Stores with pages loading under 2 seconds convert at 4.1x. Over 4 seconds?
You're at 1.9x. Your fancy ads are driving traffic to a slow website where people bounce before buying.
And here's my favorite: Stores that respond to ad comments (yes, the stupid ones too) see 18% higher ROAS.
The algorithm apparently loves engagement, even if it's you arguing with someone named "CryptoKing420" about your return policy.
**What I'm doing differently now ??**
I'm not running single-platform campaigns anymore.
Everything is cross-platform from day one, even if we're only spending $100/day. I'm treating creative like produce - if it's older than a week, it's probably expired.
And I'm finally admitting that my gut feelings about "what works" are wrong about 60% of the time.
The spreadsheet doesn't lie. My ego does.
If you need my Ad Spend Analysis sheet - just let me know in the comment and I'll D'm you the link.
https://i.redd.it/6uu7zk374ovf1.gif